With May just around the corner and West Virginia leading the Big 12, it’s now time to think seriously about the Mountaineers’ chances to host.
Even with a 37-5 record — unmatched by anyone but No. 1 Texas — this isn’t going to be easy. West Virginia doesn’t have as many opportunities to get quality wins as the teams they’re jockeying with. Kansas State and Kansas are solid teams, but they’re not going to impress nearly as much as Louisville would by beating the likes of Vanderbilt, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.
So that means some of this is out of the Mountaineers’ control. If Alabama goes on a heater and takes seven of nine from Vanderbilt, Georgia and Florida, there’s nothing West Virginia can really do about it. But here’s what likely needs to happen for the NCAA tournament to come to Morgantown.
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No Bad Losses Down the Stretch
The Mountaineers only have two midweek games left, Marshall and Pitt. Obviously, West Virginia can’t drop either of those contests. Neither the Herd nor the Panthers are strong enough to make a loss to them OK. Pitt does at least have ACC wins to make a loss a little more palatable, but West Virginia really needs two wins there.
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If the Mountaineers win those two games, they’ve likely avoided the land mines. The Big 12 invites 12 of 14 teams to Arlington for the conference tournament, and it’s single elimination. That means if West Virginia wins even one game in Globe Life Park, it’s probably not taking a bad loss.
That speaks to the depth of the Big 12, if not its overall strength. The league isn’t as strong as the SEC, but it doesn’t have many weak teams. That helps West Virginia’s chances.
Win the Final Three Series
If the Mountaineers run the table, Steve Sabins probably doesn’t need to make travel plans. Sweeping Kansas at home and sweeping Kansas State in Manhattan would make a big statement. So would a sweep of Texas Tech, even if the Red Raiders don’t have the record.
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Texas Tech opted for the Atkins diet schedule of all protein, all the time. It’s ruined the Red Raiders’ chances of finishing .500, but it’s kept their RPI in good shape. So that means beating them offers value in the hosting race.
But realistically, West Virginia’s probably not going to finish with a 14-game winning streak. And it doesn’t have to do that. An 8-3 finish where it wins every series probably would do the trick. That’s good news, but it probably comes with a caveat: the Mountaineers can’t lose a series. If they do lose one, they probably need a sweep to make up for it.
Going 1-2 in Manhattan would be forgivable if we were talking about making the field. Kansas State is formidable, especially at home. But we’re talking about comparing West Virginia to Oregon or Louisville, not to Iowa or Miami. And that means the Mountaineers have to win six of nine or better if they want to open in Morgantown.
Get Some Help From the Top Teams
This part is out of West Virginia’s hands. There’s nothing the Mountaineers can do about the SEC and ACC jockeying, but they have a few teams who could really help them.
Basically, the top teams in both leagues can help the Mountaineers by continuing to win. That did not happen this past weekend in the ACC. Clemson and Florida State gave West Virginia absolutely no help, as the Tigers got swept by N.C. State and the Seminoles dropped two of three to Louisville. Those are resume boosters the Mountaineers cannot match because nothing like that exists on their schedule.
The same thing happened in Oregon. Oregon State is rock solid as a top seed, but Oregon’s making its own late charge to the top 16. And the Ducks swept the Beavers over the weekend, which West Virginia did not need or want. The teams play again Tuesday in Corvallis, and a fourth Oregon win would really hurt unless the Ducks take some Big Ten losses.
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West Virginia really can’t afford to see Oregon, Alabama, Louisville, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech and N.C. State collect more wins like that. N.C. State goes to North Carolina next week, and a Tar Heel sweep would be huge for the Mountaineers. Not only would that help the Mountaineers hold off the Wolfpack, but it would keep the Tar Heels from falling to where West Virginia sits.
That’s an overlooked part of this equation: the biggest teams losing to the mid-level squads hurts West Virginia. Florida State and Vanderbilt, for example, are not likely to drop below West Virginia in the rankings. Unless a top-eight team falls apart down the stretch, West Virginia probably has to be content with trying to knock one off in the Super Regionals. So the Mountaineers really need the biggest names to keep winning.
Get Help At The Bottom
There are bad losses in the ACC. Taking defeats to Notre Dame, California or Boston College would really hurt a potential threat to the Mountaineers. If the Fighting Irish can win two of three from Louisville, that would be a boost for West Virginia.
Oregon also has a couple of land mines in league play. Losing to Iowa wouldn’t hurt the Ducks, but taking losses to Michigan State or Washington certainly would. It’s a lot harder to find a bad loss in the SEC, because the league is just so deep. South Carolina beating Auburn might do it, but the Gamecocks’ RPI is high enough that even that might not count enough to matter.
The only unquestionably bad loss in the SEC is the one nobody has taken: Missouri. The Tigers are 0-21 in the league, but if they do manage to somehow upset Georgia, that would pull the Bulldogs to where West Virginia could catch them.
However, Missouri managing a win is a double-edged sword. The Tigers would help the Mountaineers if they get any wins in the SEC. But their two midweek games are both against Kansas, and if we’re going to see West Virginia baseball host, it really needs to not see the Jayhawks take a bad loss outside the league.
